5
Quick To Charm
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 85
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 16/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |