Raconteuse
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 86
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 15/02/2025 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 10% | -0.64 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 91% | +0.28 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 8/15 | 97% | 60% | -0.37 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |