11
Split Success
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 81
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-07-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2024 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 05/06/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 21/07/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |