9
Provider
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 96
Ellis Park · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 07/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |