1
Boss Girl
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 52
Emerald Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Emerald Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-26 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Turf Paradise | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-16 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 10/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 08/12/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 16/12/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/12/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 26/01/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |