5
Our Bloke
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78
Emerald Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Emerald Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Turf Paradise | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-20 | Turf Paradise | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Turf Paradise | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 20/01/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 10/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 31/03/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |