Fruit Lutes
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 84
Emerald Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Emerald Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Emerald Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Emerald Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Emerald Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-07-27 | Emerald Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2024-07-04 | Emerald Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2024 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 27/07/2024 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 14/06/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |