Hacksaw Mountain
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 76
Emerald Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Emerald Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Emerald Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Emerald Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Turf Paradise | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Turf Paradise | ? | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-01-22 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 31/12/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 18/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 16/03/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |