5
Oscar Production
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 64
Emerald Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Emerald Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Emerald Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Emerald Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Turf Paradise | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Turf Paradise | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 06/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/04/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |