5
Little Minnie Mo
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 61
Emerald Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
96%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Emerald Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Emerald Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Emerald Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-08-24 | Emerald Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 06/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |