She's Just Grand

5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 81

Emerald Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2024-09-06	Del Mar	?	11th	8th	+3	2.0
2024-08-04	Del Mar	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 6

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/08/2024	6th	25/1	0%	44%	+0.44
06/09/2024	11th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00