1
Simply Smiles
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 51
Emerald Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength40%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Emerald Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Emerald Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Emerald Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength19%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2025 | 7th | 13/8 | 91% | 14% | -0.77 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |