6
Bronze Girl
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 71
Emerald Downs · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
54%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Emerald Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Emerald Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-11-16 | Golden State Racing | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Fresno | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-08-23 | Ferndale | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-06-16 | Pleasanton | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2024 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 21/04/2024 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 10/05/2024 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 16/06/2024 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 23/08/2024 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 06/10/2024 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 16/11/2024 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |