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3

Can'tdealwithit

4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 81

Emerald Downs · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Santa Anita 30/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 76 · 5f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 76 par30/01C9OR 76C7 @ Santa Anita 06/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 78 · 7f Fas 124 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Santa Anita 03/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 126 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 73 par3/04C8OR 73C8 @ Santa Anita 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m Fas 126 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Emerald Downs 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 68 · 5f110y 125 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 68 par17/05C8OR 68C8 @ Emerald Downs 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 6f110y 125 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 68 parC8 @ Emerald Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 76 · 1m 122 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 76 par6/06C8OR 76C8 @ Emerald Downs 14/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 5f110y Fas 125 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 79 parC7 @ Emerald Downs 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 81 · 5f110y 125 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 81 par25/07C7OR 81projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Emerald Downs?5th5th0
2026-06-14Emerald Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-06-06Emerald Downs?5th6th−1
2026-05-26Emerald Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-05-17Emerald Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-04-25Santa Anita?8th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0125/046/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
06/03/20265th25/10%20%+0.20
03/04/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02
25/04/20268th14/126%13%-0.14
17/05/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
26/05/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
06/06/20265th4/179%20%-0.59
14/06/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03
25/07/20265th2/189%20%-0.69