4
Clubhouse Drama
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 86
Emerald Downs · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Emerald Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Emerald Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Emerald Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Emerald Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Emerald Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-04 | Emerald Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 11/05/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 26/05/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 04/07/2025 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 43% | -0.50 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |