5
Flyin By
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 80
Emerald Downs · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Emerald Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Emerald Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Emerald Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 07/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 24/02/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 07/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |