10
Mafia Du Bas Bosq
4yo Filly · 0-0
Enghien · Prix De Pornic - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼12
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 12 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 18
Class gap: +12.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | La Capelle | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Amiens | 6 | +12 | ||
| 2026-05-30 | Caen | 6 | 8th | -6th | +12 |
| 2026-05-13 | Strasbourg | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Chartres | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-10 | Enghien | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/06/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 17/07/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 24/02/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 10/03/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |