11
Lelia France
5yo Filly · 9-13
Enghien · Prix De La Place De Valois - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#9
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength31%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Cabourg | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vincennes | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Vincennes | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-06 | Vincennes | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-12-30 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Vincennes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 02/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 13/05/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 30/12/2025 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 05/02/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |