2
Mauricio Du Derby
4yo Gelding · 9-13
Enghien · Prix De La Place De Valois - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#4
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Enghien | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Enghien | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Lisieux | 6 | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-04-21 | Vincennes | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Enghien | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 31/10/2025 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 24/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/04/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |