Rafaroo
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 89
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-06-15 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2024 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 15/11/2024 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 04/01/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/06/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |