IvyArcIvyArc
8

Iliana

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 87

Gulfstream · Race 10 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Gulfstream 29/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m 12329/01C9C9 @ Gulfstream 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 77 · 1m Fas 126 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 77 par3/04C9OR 77C8 @ Gulfstream 26/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 80 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 80 par26/04C8OR 80C7 @ Gulfstream 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 82 · 1m70y Fas 126 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 82 par12/06C7OR 82C7 @ Gulfstream 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 85 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 85 par11/07C7OR 85projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Gulfstream?3rd3rd0
2026-06-12Gulfstream?3rd3rd0
2026-04-26Gulfstream?2nd3rd−1
2026-04-03Gulfstream?1st3rd−2
2026-01-29Gulfstream?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/013/0426/0412/0611/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength81%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/01/20262nd6/168%83%+0.15
03/04/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03
26/04/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07
12/06/20263rd10/147%75%+0.28
11/07/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01