6
Insolenta
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 86
Gulfstream · Race 10 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 31/07/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |
| 20/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 29/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |