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Money Trail

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 81

Gulfstream · Race 10 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 26/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 85 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/10/2025 · OR 85 par26/10C6OR 85C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 20/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 78 · 1m Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 78 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 79 · 1m110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/01/2026 · OR 79 par10/01C6OR 79C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 22/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 85 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 85 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 18/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark18/03/2026 · OR 86 par18/03C9OR 86C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 82 parC6 @ Gulfstream 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 80 · 1m110y Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 80 par17/05C6OR 80C6 @ Gulfstream 14/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 1m70y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Gulfstream 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 1m Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 81 par12/07C5OR 81projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Gulfstream?1st-1th+2
2026-06-14Gulfstream?1st0th+1
2026-05-17Gulfstream?3rd2nd+1
2026-04-10Tampa Bay Downs?3rd5th−2
2026-03-18Tampa Bay Downs?2nd4th−2
2026-02-22Tampa Bay Downs?3rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1022/0217/0512/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/10/20258th8/158%13%-0.45
20/12/20252nd33/10%88%+0.88
10/01/20268th33/10%30%+0.30
22/02/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07
18/03/20262nd1/195%83%-0.11
10/04/20263rd5/493%78%-0.16
17/05/20263rd9/488%71%-0.17
14/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
12/07/20261st9/153%100%+0.47