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4

Dimanche Gras

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 85

Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Gulfstream 06/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 81 · 1m70y Fas 118 · beat its mark06/04/2025 · OR 81 par6/04C9OR 81C7 @ Gulfstream 26/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 85 · 1m110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2025 · OR 85 parC7 @ Gulfstream 01/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/06/2025 · OR 86 par1/06C7OR 86C7 @ Gulfstream 22/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/06/2025 · OR 86 parC7 @ Gulfstream 20/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 86 · 1m70y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/07/2025 · OR 86 par20/07C7OR 86C7 @ Gulfstream 31/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 84 · 1m70y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/08/2025 · OR 84 parC7 @ Gulfstream 08/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 89 · 1m70y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 89 par8/11C7OR 89C8 @ Gulfstream 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 88 · 1m70y 126 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 88 parC8 @ Gulfstream 13/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fas 126 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 86 par13/07C8OR 86projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-13Gulfstream?4th4th0
2026-06-13Gulfstream?1st1st0
2025-11-08Gulfstream?2nd1st+1
2025-08-31Gulfstream?2nd1st+1
2025-07-20Gulfstream?7th6th+1
2025-06-22Gulfstream?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0422/068/1113/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/04/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
26/04/20252nd11/271%86%+0.15
01/06/20253rd10/382%60%-0.22
22/06/20252nd16/116%86%+0.70
20/07/20257th8/158%25%-0.33
31/08/20252nd25/10%86%+0.86
08/11/20252nd9/153%83%+0.31
13/06/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
13/07/20264th11/893%63%-0.30