3
Refined Honor
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 77
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 13/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 10/08/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 13/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |