6
Willing One
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 72
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 71% | -0.22 |
| 31/12/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 11/01/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 25/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |