1
Mischief Motion
7yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 60
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/09/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/03/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |