5
Miss Valentina
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 73
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
1/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength94%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 10/01/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |