4
Pretty Geisha
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 62
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength90%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 29/01/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |