8
Somerset Mia
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 67
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |