Serrania
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 80
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |