1
Smart Lisa
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 40
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-12-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength23%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2024 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 05/12/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 26/10/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 04/01/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |