9
Hottakejake
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 86
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 15/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |