5
Nero Tulip
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 72
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-07-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2023 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/02/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/04/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/05/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 06/07/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 23/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 08/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/01/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 14% | -0.70 |