1
Surf's Up
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 86
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
62%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 14/11/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |