3
Astridshadowmoon
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 64
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |