4
Freedom Street
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 65
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 05/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |
| 24/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |