5
Ky's Law
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 68
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength42%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 21/12/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |