7
Messagefromtheking
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 84
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 15/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 11% | -0.60 |