4
Chaplin
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 82
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength12%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 18/04/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 17/05/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 13/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 12/12/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 04/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |