Java Buzz

7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 90

Gulfstream · Race 9 - Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-18	Gulfstream	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-19	Gulfstream	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-03-27	Gulfstream	?	8th	6th	+2	4.4
2026-02-27	Gulfstream	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2026-01-29	Gulfstream	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2026-01-08	Gulfstream	?	7th	5th	+2	5.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 8

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/09/2025	1st	9/1	53%	100%	+0.47
05/10/2025	3rd	5/4	93%	60%	-0.33
07/11/2025	3rd	7/1	63%	82%	+0.19
08/01/2026	7th	10/3	82%	14%	-0.68
29/01/2026	5th	14/1	26%	43%	+0.17
27/02/2026	6th	13/2	66%	17%	-0.49
27/03/2026	8th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71
19/06/2026	6th	9/2	76%	0%	-0.76
18/07/2026	2nd	16/1	16%	86%	+0.70