1
Convergent
4yo Colt · 9-10 · OR 117
Haydock · Betway Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 2f 42y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Leopardstown | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-07 | Chester | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 4
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/04/2025 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 07/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 13/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |