3
Nahraan
4yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 110
Haydock · Betway Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 2f 42y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 9th | 9th | −0 |
| 2025-09-14 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-18 | Hamilton | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-06-09 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 4
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 09/06/2025 | 1st | 2/15 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 18/07/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 16/06/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 47% | -0.27 |