IvyArcIvyArc
4

Sallaal

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 119

Haydock · Betway Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 2f 42y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/5

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

82%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bred in the purple and won twice in 2025. Has upped his game further this season, producing a very smart effort when storming clear in 16-runner 1¼m handicap at Epsom in June and following up with a bit in hand in 6-runner listed race at Sandown (1¼m, good). Should take all the beating up in class.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Yarmouth 15/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 7f3y Sft 13315/1041 @ Newmarket 15/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f GS 1282 @ Hamilton 04/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 91 · 1m68y Goo 136 · beat its mark04/05/2025 · OR 91 par4/052OR 912 @ Hamilton 17/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 97 · 1m68y Goo 131 · beat its mark17/07/2025 · OR 97 par1 @ Sandown 17/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 103 · 1m Sft 128 · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 103 par17/091OR 1031 @ Leopardstown 19/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 103 · 1m Hvy 132 · beat its mark19/10/2025 · OR 103 par2 @ Epsom Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 102 · 1m2f17y Gd 137 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 102 par28/042OR 1022 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 107 · 1m2f17y Goo 135 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 107 par1 @ Sandown 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 119 · 1m1f209y Goo 135 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 119 par3/071OR 119projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-03Sandown11st1st−0
2026-06-05Epsom Downs21st3rd−1
2026-04-28Epsom Downs22nd4th−1
2025-10-19Leopardstown15th5th−0
2025-09-17Sandown13rd3rd−0
2025-07-17Hamilton21st3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1017/0728/043/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength91%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 4.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/10/20241st11/486%100%+0.14
15/04/20255th7/282%43%-0.39
04/05/20251st1/398%100%+0.02
17/07/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
17/09/20253rd3/184%60%-0.24
19/10/20255th2/189%43%-0.47
28/04/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07
05/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
03/07/20261st4/596%100%+0.04