1
Alobayyah
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 96
Haydock · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-14 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-08-30 | Sandown | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2024-10-22 | Yarmouth | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 11
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/08/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 14/10/2025 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 43% | -0.53 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |