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Aviatrice

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 90

Haydock · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f 212y

#7

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a listed race at Dundalk last November and returned in good heart with a pair of third-placed finished in competitive Curragh handicaps. Bumped into an unexposed rival when second in a 6-runner handicap at Leopardstown (1m) 3 weeks ago but this is tougher again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲7
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 11.1 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA80 @ Galway 28/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 80 · 7f Yie 140 · below its mark28/07/2025 · OR 80 par28/0780OR 80BHA80 @ Curragh 09/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 136 · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 80 parBHA79 @ Leopardstown 21/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 79 · 1m Gd 127 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 79 par21/0879OR 79BHA78 @ Dundalk 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 78 · 7f Std 125 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 78 par1 @ Dundalk 07/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 91 · 1m Std 128 · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 91 par7/111OR 91BHA88 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 88 · 6f Gd 129 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 88 parBHA88 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 88 · 7f Gd 123 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 88 par14/0688OR 88BHA88 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 88 · 7f GF 131 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 88 parBHA88 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 88 · 1m Goo 140 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 88 par16/0788OR 88projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA882nd12th−8
2026-06-27CurraghBHA883rd13th−8
2026-06-14CorkBHA8810th20th−8
2026-05-23CurraghBHA883rd13th−8
2025-11-07Dundalk11st1st0
2025-10-14DundalkBHA781st9th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0714/1014/0616/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 11
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength82%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/07/20257th11/486%57%-0.28
09/08/20253rd7/163%83%+0.20
21/08/20252nd10/382%89%+0.06
14/10/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
07/11/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
23/05/20263rd13/266%90%+0.25
14/06/202610th5/174%36%-0.38
27/06/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
16/07/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04