9
Calendar Girl
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 102
Haydock · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 1.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Doncaster | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-07-24 | Newbury | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 86% | -0.12 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |