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Fallen Angel

5yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 116

Haydock · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f 212y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

90%

Place Prob

66%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Irish 1000 Guineas winner in 2024 and added 3 Group 1 prizes (all confined to own sex) to her tally last year. Easy to back and failed to capitalise on an easy lead when 4½ lengths last of 4 in the Middleton Stakes at York (10.3f, good) on return but she'll be very tough to beat if back to her best.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Leopardstown 14/09/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 116 · 1m Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2024 · OR 116 par14/091OR 116C0 @ ParisLongchamp 06/10/2024 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 116 · 1m1f207y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/10/2024 · OR 116 par1 @ Newbury 17/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 114 · 1m GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/05/2025 · OR 114 par17/051OR 1141 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 114 · 7f213y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2025 · OR 114 par1 @ Deauville 03/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 112 · 7f209y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 112 par3/081OR 1121 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 115 · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 115 par1 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 115 · 1m Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 115 par4/101OR 1151 @ Ascot 18/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 116 · 1m Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 116 par1 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 116 · 1m2f56y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 116 par14/051OR 116projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-14York14th4th+0
2025-10-18Ascot110th9th+1
2025-10-04Newmarket11st0th+1
2025-09-13Leopardstown11st0th+1
2025-08-03Deauville11st0th+1
2025-06-18Royal Ascot13rd3rd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0918/064/1014/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/20242nd5/287%88%+0.01
06/10/20244th7/282%70%-0.12
17/05/20256th20/10%29%+0.29
18/06/20253rd6/168%67%-0.02
03/08/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
13/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
04/10/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
18/10/202510th8/158%40%-0.18
14/05/20264th11/271%0%-0.71