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4

Maeva

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 90

Haydock · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f 212y

#11

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved switched to handicaps, landing back-to-back 1m contests at Chelmsford/Sandown last summer. Far from disgraced when sixth in French listed contest on final outing but struggled from much-inflated mark at Wolverhampton on return. Up against it after 113 days off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 30/10/2024 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 1m Sta 12630/1055 @ Nottingham 01/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 1245 @ Ffos Las 29/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m2f Sft 12629/0655 @ Nottingham 31/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m75y GS 126 · beat its mark31/07/2025 · OR 65 par5 @ Chelmsford City 07/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 65 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 65 par7/085OR 654 @ Sandown 17/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 78 · 1m Sft 134 · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 78 parC1 @ Saint-Cloud 09/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 82 · 7f209y Sft 123 · beat its mark09/11/2025 · OR 82 par9/11C1OR 823 @ Wolverhampton 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 92 · 1m142y Std 142 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 92 par17/043OR 92projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-17Wolverhampton35th8th−2
2025-11-09Saint-Cloud?6th6th0
2025-09-17Sandown41st5th−3
2025-08-07Chelmsford City51st6th−4
2025-07-31Nottingham54th9th−4
2025-06-29Ffos Las53rd8th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1031/079/1117/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength50%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/10/20249th14/126%38%+0.12
01/06/20254th11/142%73%+0.31
29/06/20253rd6/168%60%-0.08
31/07/20254th7/163%63%-0.01
07/08/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
17/09/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
09/11/20256th22/10%71%+0.71
17/04/20265th11/142%0%-0.42