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Mostar Dreams

5yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 98

Haydock · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f 212y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened her account for present yard at Newcastle in January. Ran a cracker upped markedly in grade when 2¼ lengths fourth of 12 to Radiant Beauty in a fillies listed race at Pontefract last month and backed that up behind 2 smart geldings in another listed event there 2 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 05/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 83 · 6f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 83 par5/093OR 832 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 20th of 25 · OR 83 · 6f Sft 136 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 19th of 21 · OR 83 · 7f6y Hvy 140 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 83 par8/114OR 834 @ Chelmsford City 26/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 7f Std 137 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Newcastle 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 1m5y Std 137 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 82 par9/014OR 824 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m5y Std 134 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 84 · 6f195y GF 142 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 84 par24/064OR 841 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m6y Goo 128 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 85 par1 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 88 · 1m6y Goo 128 · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 88 par26/071OR 88projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Pontefract13rd3rd0
2026-07-07Pontefract14th4th0
2026-06-24Carlisle42nd6th−3
2026-02-06Newcastle49th13th−3
2026-01-09Newcastle41st5th−3
2025-11-26Chelmsford City43rd7th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0926/1124/0626/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20253rd15/261%80%+0.19
19/09/202520th5/174%21%-0.53
08/11/202519th20/10%10%+0.10
26/11/20253rd3/184%67%-0.18
09/01/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
06/02/20269th9/153%27%-0.25
24/06/20262nd15/261%80%+0.19
07/07/20264th33/10%73%+0.73
26/07/20263rd20/10%60%+0.60